Where Chinese EV Exports Grow Next: Beyond Europe

For two years, the story of Chinese EV exports has been written in Brussels - tariffs, countervailing duties, and the slow squeeze on the European market. But the next chapter is being written elsewhere. According to Arthur D. Little's GEMRIX 2026 readiness index, the markets to watch are Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, Turkey, and the Gulf states of the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The priority tier: Brazil and Indonesia

If you look only at the next two to three years, Brazil and Indonesia should be the first places carmakers hunt for incremental volume, with Thailand close behind. The logic differs by market. Brazil combines a large addressable base with both affordable BEV room and strong plug-in demand - and a mature ethanol supply that makes flex-fuel hybrids a natural fit. BYD launched a locally built Song Pro flex-fuel plug-in there in August, an engine that runs on gasoline or ethanol to match local habits. With President Lula re-elected, the policy tailwind for firms promising long-term local investment holds.

Thailand: high share, harder fight

Thailand already has a mature EV industry and supply chain, but Chinese brands hold a high share and price competition is fierce. The next step is not more EVs - it is converting internal-combustion loyalists. That is a slower, more selective fight than the land-grab phase.

The Gulf: channel and parts

In the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the near-term play is different. Mature local dealership channels already exist; the opportunity is to extend them and capture component-supply upside as those markets build manufacturing. For importers, that means partner selection matters more than price.

What this means for buyers

The takeaway for distributors: Europe is the headline, but the volume growth is diversifying across emerging and Gulf markets. A portfolio that leans only on the EU is exposed to quota and duty risk at exactly the moment these other markets are opening. The brands that localize - in Brazil's case, flex-fuel and local assembly - will own the next increment.

Is your 2027 sourcing plan weighted to where the growth actually is, or to where the tariffs make the headlines?